Central banks remain in a restrictive-to-neutral holding pattern with the Fed signaling potential further hikes in response to sticky inflation, supporting real yields and constraining multiple expansion, while growth remains resilient in the US despite rising debt service costs. Geopolitical friction—particularly US-China trade tensions, Middle East escalation, and European trade rebalancing pressures—creates headline volatility and policy uncertainty, yet markets are pricing these risks as manageable within a strong dollar and elevated liquidity environment where large-cap tech and AI continue to outperform. The composite regime reflects risk appetite intact: asset prices are discounting neither imminent recession nor systemic stress, though the upward yield regime and selective equity rotations signal investors are selectively de-risking at the margin while maintaining overall constructive positioning.